Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 0.043424 0.049162 0.055547 0.063207 0.072190 0.082439 0.095086
2025-12-28 0.035109 0.042342 0.051042 0.062382 0.076934 0.095199 0.120209
2026-01-04 0.029719 0.037869 0.048366 0.063118 0.083710 0.112049 0.155107
2026-01-11 0.025180 0.033687 0.045339 0.062886 0.089410 0.129336 0.196719
2026-01-18 0.021563 0.030149 0.042590 0.062580 0.095200 0.148863 0.249765
2026-01-25 0.018266 0.026538 0.039134 0.060590 0.098161 0.165401 0.306007
2026-02-01 0.015390 0.023117 0.035404 0.057451 0.098623 0.178354 0.363191
2026-02-08 0.013601 0.021129 0.033640 0.057334 0.104707 0.204680 0.465104
2026-02-15 0.012141 0.019458 0.032134 0.057412 0.111429 0.235691 0.601313
2026-02-22 0.011013 0.018188 0.031126 0.058269 0.120291 0.276296 0.799870
2026-03-01 0.010023 0.017015 0.030105 0.058915 0.129147 0.322194 1.065036
2026-03-08 0.008972 0.015586 0.028361 0.057652 0.133189 0.357952 1.340628
2026-03-15 0.007758 0.013714 0.025496 0.053381 0.128538 0.366887 1.526279
2026-03-22 0.007112 0.012862 0.024600 0.053572 0.136473 0.423667 2.053948
2026-03-29 0.006636 0.012284 0.024196 0.054923 0.148646 0.506524 2.937956
2026-04-05 0.006146 0.011615 0.023486 0.055347 0.158415 0.590024 4.103110
2026-04-12 0.005702 0.010984 0.022765 0.055601 0.168037 0.684234 5.771357
2026-04-19 0.005218 0.010208 0.021585 0.054293 0.171738 0.755202 7.598300
2026-04-26 0.004730 0.009369 0.020133 0.051870 0.170373 0.799596 9.413503
2026-05-03 0.004429 0.008916 0.019570 0.052040 0.179788 0.922910 13.664551
2026-05-10 0.004165 0.008515 0.019078 0.052336 0.190187 1.070861 20.439146
2026-05-17 0.003954 0.008215 0.018802 0.053294 0.204433 1.274855 32.983039
2026-05-24 0.003753 0.007914 0.018482 0.054036 0.218403 1.508343 54.428711